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The unpredictability has led some analysts to reiterate their recommendation to buy dividend stocks. According to Morgan Stanley, the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan High Dividend Index outperformed the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index in the first quarter of the year, albeit by only 0.58%. The cautious investors' sentiment also drives allocation toward Quality Dividend stocks," the investment bank's analysts wrote in an Apr. These translate into a higher UST bond yields and particularly favoring dividend stocks to outperform." The latter has a forward dividend yield of 8%, according to Morgan Stanley, comfortably higher than the average of 5.1% on the screen.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MSCI Asia, Asia, UST, U.S . Treasury, China Overseas Property Holdings, China Medical System Holdings, Bank of China Locations: Japan, Asia, Pacific, China, Taiwan
Ukraine attacked another Russian oil refinery on Saturday night. AdvertisementA long week of attacks on oil and gas infrastructureThis past week, Ukraine has made a concerted effort to degrade Russia's oil production capabilities. The governor of Russia's Samara Oblast reported on March 16 that Ukrainian drones had attacked two Rosneft oil refineries. One attack had hit another major oil refinery operated by Lukoil in the southwestern Volgograd region. Similar incidents had occurred across Russia in January, hitting the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery, an oil refinery in Tuapse, a storage facility in Klintsy, and a Baltic sea Ust-Luga terminal.
Persons: , Ukrainska, Russia's, Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelensky, Краснодарському кра РосВдео Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Business, Astra, Ukrainska Pravda, Security Services, Security Service, Stringer, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Reuters, Staff, Lukoil, НПЗ Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Krasnodar, Moscow, Russia, Russia's Samara Oblast, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Leningrad, Lukoil's Norsi, Russia's Belgorod, Norsi, Ukrainian, Volgograd, Tuapse, Klintsy, Baltic
An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics. Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run. That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem. "The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative," strategists said in a note on Wednesday. New York Fed economists, meanwhile, are pricing in a 61% chance the economy could tip into recession by January of next year.
Persons: SVB Organizations: ING Economics, Treasury, Business, European Central Bank, ING, Bank, UST, Bund, ECB, New York Fed Locations: Europe, Silicon
The danger of higher rates for longer following the latest hot inflation reading raises the "downside risk" for regional banks, according to Bank of America. "Fewer and later Fed rate cuts pose downside risk to bank stocks," analyst Ebrahim Poonawala wrote in a Tuesday note. "We are especially concerned about the failure of the broader market to project the trajectory of interest rates – a consistent theme since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022." "We worry about the risk from no rate cuts in 2024 and a far more elevated level of interest rates across the UST yield curve," Poonawala added. Net interest margin is the difference between the interest banks earn on loans and pay on deposits.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonawala, Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Federal, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, UST, Regional Banking, Regional Banking ETF, JPMorgan, BNY, U.S . Bancorp, First Bancorp Locations: Silicon, U.S, Puerto Rico
Wall Street is forecasting a better backdrop for companies that want to go public. While lower rates can stoke the IPO market, fewer rate cuts because the economy remains strong with cooling inflation should still be viewed as favorable. The IPO market and mergers and acquisitions (M & A) activity started to sour when the Fed began hiking interest rates back in March 2022. A strong IPO market overall is expected to also benefit burgeoning biotechnology firms, which would mean more business for Danaher. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: That's, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Danaher, Morgan, Morgan Stanley didn't, Ted Pick's, Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley's, Raymond James, , Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Federal, stoke, UST, Goldman, Fed, Companies, IB, Danaher, Biotech, Silicon Valley Bank, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: U.S, Silicon
Dollar hovers near 7-week high as Fed cut bets shift to May
  + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar has been buoyed by U.S. economic data suggesting the Fed can wait longer before cutting interest rates. Powell gave the currency another push overnight by calling a cut in March "not the base case." Traders are now pricing in a 38% probability the Fed will cut rates in March, down from 59% ahead of the Fed decision. Against Japan's currency, the dollar drifted 0.06% lower to 146.81 yen , adding to Wednesday's 0.47% decline.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Hogan, Riley, Sean Callow Organizations: Federal, Treasury, U.S, New, Bancorp, Fed, Traders, New York Community Bancorp, Investors, UST, Westpac, U.S . Locations: U.S, New York
Several oil and gas facilities in Russia have caught fire in recent weeks following suspected drone attacks. Russia's air defense systems have proven to be less effective against small drones. AdvertisementUkraine appears to be targeting Russia's oil and gas industry with small, cheap drones as it seeks to disrupt Russian supply lines. Ukraine is likely targeting the facilities in an attempt to disrupt Russia's military operations. AdvertisementWhy Ukraine is able to embarrass Russia's air defense systemsRussia's air defense systems have proven to be less effective against small drones as they struggle to detect them.
Persons: , Lapenko, Vladimir Putin's, Vladimir Putin, Samuel Bendett Organizations: Service, New York Times, Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, Getty, RBC, Center for Naval Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Tuapse, Klintsy, Ukrainian, Moscow, Baltic Ust, St, Petersburg, Lake Valdai, Valdai
Analysts said Ukraine appeared to be exploiting gaps in Russian air defenses. Russia's air defenses are focused on potential attacks from NATO in the west, not the south. AdvertisementUkraine is exploiting gaps in Russia's air defenses, which were designed for a different kind of war, according to a report. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast, near St Petersburg, appeared to be poor. AdvertisementThe ISW said the attacks were stretching Russia's air defenses.
Persons: , Russia's Organizations: Analysts, NATO, Service, Ukrainian, Reuters, Business Locations: Ukraine, US, Leningrad Oblast, St Petersburg, West, Ust, Tula, Moscow, Russia, Klintsy, Ukrainian, Crimea
SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA - 2022/06/15: Novatek Logo seen on the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2022 (SPIEF 2022). (Photo by Maksim Konstantinov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)A fire broke out at a Baltic Sea terminal belonging to Novatek, Russia's largest liquefied natural gas producer, regional officials said on Sunday, amid reports of explosions and Ukrainian drone sightings in the area. "There were no casualties as a result of the fire at the Novatek terminal in the port of Ust-Luga. St. Petersburg-based news outlet Fontanka said at least two drones were spotted in the sky flying towards St. Petersburg before the terminal caught fire. That came a day after an attack on a Russian Baltic Sea oil terminal that Russian officials said was unsuccessful.
Persons: Maksim Konstantinov, Alexander Drozdenko, Drozdenko, Fontanka, Novatek Organizations: St ., Economic, Getty, Leningrad region's, Moscow, Kyiv Locations: SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA, St, St . Petersburg, Novatek, Finland, Ust, Leningrad, Petersburg, Russia, Ukraine, Russia's, Bryansk, Baltic, Russian
However, a recent incident in the Red Sea highlights some of the risks faced by dark fleet ships, which typically have opaque ownership and frequently change their vessel names and flag registrations. The vessel was carrying Russian oil loaded at the port of Ust-Luga. "This was the second tanker mistakenly targeted by the Houthis whilst carrying Russian oil," Ambrey added. The Houthis have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea since November in retaliation for Israel's bombings in Gaza. AdvertisementThe Houthi's attacks in the Red Sea are upending global shipping with major shipping lines, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, changing up their shipping routes to avoid risk.
Persons: , It's, Ambrey, Lloyd, Matthew Loh Organizations: Service, Business, Panama, Union Maritime, Maersk, Hapag Locations: Russia, Iran, Yemen, Ust, Red, Gaza
Data compiled by The Earnings Scout shows the early reporters have had no trouble beating earnings expectations so far. Tuesday Goldman Sachs is set to report earnings before the bell, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. What history shows: Goldman exceeds earnings expectations 85% of the time, data from Bespoke Investment Group shows. What history shows: Bespoke data shows PNC tops earnings expectations 75% of the time. What history shows: KeyCorp shares have fallen on four of the last five earnings days, Bespoke data shows.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Hugh Son, Goldman, James Gorman, Ted Pick, it's, Jefferies, Schlumberger, SLB, Wells, Roger Read Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wall, PNC Financial, CNBC, Investment Group, Management, LSEG, PNC, Regional Banking, JPMorgan, UST, Schlumberger Locations: Wells Fargo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, 3Q23, SLB
Do Kwon, the cryptocurrency entrepreneur, who created the failed Terra (UST) stablecoin, is taken to court in Podgorica, Montenegro, March 24, 2023. The decision will be made after Do Kwon completes serving his prison sentence for document forgery, the court said. A South Korean national, Kwon is the former CEO of South Korea-based Terraform Labs, the company behind the stablecoin TerraUSD that collapsed in May 2022, roiling cryptocurrency markets. Following Kwon's arrest, the U.S. District Court in Manhattan made public an eight-count indictment against him for securities fraud, wire fraud, commodities fraud and conspiracy. In late May, a Montenegrin court scrapped a bail of 800,000 euros for the pair, saying it could not be taken as a solid guarantee, nor their promise they would not run away once released from detention.
Persons: Kwon, Stevo, Do Kwon, Kwon ´, Han Chang, joon, Daria Sito, Mark Potter Organizations: UST, REUTERS, Rights, Police, Terraform Labs, Court, Korean, Labs, U.S, Thomson Locations: Podgorica, Montenegro, Rights SARAJEVO, South Korea, United States, U.S, Rican, Montenegrin, Dubai, Manhattan
REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMOSCOW/LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Three major Greek shipping firms have stopped transporting Russian oil in recent weeks in order to avoid U.S. sanctions now being imposed on some shipping firms carrying Russian oil, four traders told Reuters and shipping data showed. Greek shippers Minerva Marine, Thenamaris and TMS Tankers have stopped transporting Russia oil in recent weeks, the four traders said. The Greek shippers' exit from the trade followed tighter U.S. sanctions imposed on Russian oil shipments. The G7 countries introduced a price cap on Russian oil in late 2022, but had not previously enforced it. Russian oil trade has brought record revenues over the past year to the shippers who took the risk and stayed in the business.
Persons: Tatiana Meel, Thenamaris, Minerva, Jonathan Saul, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Eleftherios Papadimas, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nord, REUTERS, Minerva, TMS, Minerva Marine, Reuters, United Arab Emirates, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Nakhodka Bay, Nakhodka, Russia, LONDON, Asia, Turkey, East, Africa, South America, Moscow, Washington, OPEC, U.S, Baltic, India, Primorsk, Ust, Iran, Europe, UAE, Hong Kong, Seychelles, Ghana, Liberia, Cook, London, Athens
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 21 (Reuters) - Spreads on U.S. corporate high-grade bonds are likely to tighten in 2024, according to JPMorgan (JPM.N). In a report published on Monday, JPMorgan forecast that returns on high-grade bonds will reach new highs in 2024 that will continue through the end of the year. The bank anticipates total returns on high-grade bonds climbing to 12.4% by year-end 2024 from 1.8% currently. Lower new bond supply next year will contribute to high-grade spreads' tightening, according to the report. At the same time as it expects high-grade spreads to tighten next year, JPMorgan forecast that high-yield bond spreads will widen.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, HG, Matt Tracy, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, JPMorgan, HG, Federal Reserve, Treasury, UST, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S
Russia has been using so-called "ghost ships" to skirt the West's oil price cap. Russia sends millions of barrels of crude oil through a choke point at the Danish straits, per the outlet. AdvertisementRussian oil tankers could face a crackdown at a key choke point, according to the Financial Times. But Denmark could struggle to stop the ghost ships because of constraints on its own navy, according to maritime experts. Blocking commercial traffic in the Danish straits would come close to a declaration of war," Hans Peter Michaelsen, an independent defense analyst, told Reuters.
Persons: , Hans Peter Michaelsen Organizations: EU, Financial Times, Service, European Union, KSE, Bloomberg, FT, UN, Reuters Locations: Russia, Denmark, Moscow, Saint Petersburg, EU, Danish
MOSCOW, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Russia's Urals oil prices on Friday fell below the Western price cap level of $60 per barrel amid a rise in freight rates fuelled by fresh U.S. sanctions on shipowners and weaker global oil prices, two traders said and Reuters calculations showed. Russia's main export grade had been trading above $60 since mid-July amid output cuts by OPEC+ producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia. On Friday freight rates for Urals oil shipments from Russia's Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga to India rose to $9.2-9.5 million per tanker per voyage from $8 million last week. Urals oil prices on a delivered ex-ship basis in Indian ports were stable at a discount of around $5 per barrel to dated Brent, traders said. High transportations costs weighed on FOB prices for Russian Urals oil, traders said, adding that amid weakness in Brent the grade's price was below $60 as of Friday.
Persons: Brent, Jason Neely Organizations: U.S . Treasury Department, United, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, U.S, United Arab Emirates, Australia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Primorsk, Ust, Luga, India, Brent
Whatever is driving it, the sheer size of the record short positions and the pace at which they are growing suggest the reversal, when it comes, could be powerful. Leveraged funds - those more likely to be active in the basis trade - grew their net short position by 149,000 contracts to 2.08 million, a new record. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIn the two-year space, non-commercial accounts grew their net short position slightly to a new record 1.454 million contracts, and leveraged funds' net short position rose substantially to 1.716 million contracts, also a new record. A short position is essentially a bet that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet that it will rise. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsIf softer inflation and a more dovish U.S. central bank keep yields under downward pressure, funds' short Treasuries position is likely to come under increasing pressure too.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Futures Trading Commission, Reuters, Bank of America, UST, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S
Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee recently completed the quarterly rebalancing for his Granny Shots portfolio, a list of his top 36 stock picks which has consistently outperformed the market since its inception on Jan. 10, 2019. The Granny Shots portfolio, on the other hand, is up 157.3% in the same period, according to Fundstrat's website . This year alone, the Granny Shots portfolio's 19.33% rally has also outpaced the S & P 500's 13.9% gain. The portfolio takes its name from a style of underhanded shot in basketball that's considered to be highly efficient. Here are a few of the newest additions to Lee's Granny Portfolio.
Persons: Tom Lee, that's, Lee, Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Newton, Hess, Morgan Stanley, Oracle Organizations: Fundstrat Global, Granny, Jan, UST, Washington, Everest, Insurance, ISI, Oracle, CNBC, Caterpillar Locations: Fed
Russia has pledged to preserve an oil export cut of 300,000 bpd until the end of the year. Most recently Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that cut includes both oil and oil products. Russia banned oil product exports in the end of September resulting in higher oil exports in October. Still, the November refinery throughput plan could be adjusted, traders said, depending on the length of the oil product export ban and on domestic fuel prices. "Fundamentally we expect a decline in November Urals exports, though the oil product ban was something no one expected, so it is difficult to predict exports given such sudden government decisions," a source in Russian oil market said.
Persons: Alexey Malgavko, Alexander Novak, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Siberian, Omsk, Russia, Primorsk, Ust
[1/2] The Deutsche Bank app logo is seen on a smartphone in this picture illustration taken September 15, 2017. RusKhimAlyans, which is 50% owned by Gazprom, filed lawsuits in Russia seeking more than 22 billion roubles ($22 million) from Deutsche Bank and over 8 billion roubles from Commerzbank over unpaid bank guarantees. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank both said they were unable to pay RusKhimAlyans due to European Union sanctions. Deutsche Bank and RusKhimAlyans declined to comment. RusKhimAlyans had signed a deal with Linde in 2021 for the construction of the gas plant, with Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and UniCredit providing guarantees.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, RusKhimAlyans –, RusKhimAlyans, Commerzbank, UniCredit, UCCDB.UL, Linde, Sam Tobin, Sinead Cruise, Vladimir Soldatkin, Mark Potter Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, Gazprom, Linde, High, RIC, RusKhimAlyans, Commerzbank, Thomson Locations: London, Russia, Baltic, Ust, Luga, Ukraine, Moscow
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.
Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "It has all the hallmarks of intervention in all honesty," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report.
Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble, Herbert Lash, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe, Tokyo
Dollar weakens against the yen after yen breaches key 150 level
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen has fallen about 25% year-to-date against the greenback. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report. The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six peers, was up 0.13% at 107.16, at its highest since November.
Persons: Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble Organizations: greenback, The, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe
Many oil majors have avoided contracting tankers that have carried Russian crude because of the risk of sanctions and self-imposed restrictions. Under the price cap, western companies can ship and provide insurance for Russian oil and products provided they are sold at less than $60 per barrel. "Dead freight is one of the issues when working with Russian oil as not all companies agree to use ships involved in Urals deliveries," the trader said. Orlen said it was not involved in any Russian oil shipping and it screened all vessels it uses to ensure no Russian sanctions are violated. Russian oil has been mostly shipped to Asia following the EU embargo.
Persons: Orlen, Russia's Zarubezhneft, Sidi Kerir, Nissos Delos, Marek Strzelecki, Maha El, Barbara Lewis Organizations: MOSCOW, Group, European Union, Botafogo, TMS, Kyklades, Saudi Aramco, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Asia, Lithuania, Poland, Russian, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, ASIA, Poland's Gdansk, Lithuania's, Russian Baltic, Baltic, Primorsk, Mundra, West India, Saudi, Sidi, Gdansk, Waikiki, Bonita, Nissos, Calida, Butinge, Russia's, Ust, India, Warsaw, Maha, Maha El Dahan, Dubai
Soaring yields leave stocks struggling for headway
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose about 2.5 basis points (bps) in early Tokyo trade to 4.366%, extending an overnight rise to hit their highest since 2007. The 10-year real rate breached 2% in overnight trade. Sovereign yields in Australia, Korea, New Zealand and Japan all rose on Tuesday, with 10-year Japanese yields hitting their highest since 2014 at 0.66%. China disappointed markets with smaller-than-expected interest rate cuts on Monday, though it has been resolute in defending its sliding currency. The euro , which rose slightly overnight, was firm at $1.0906, while the Antipodean currencies , were pinned near nine-month lows and looking vulnerable.
Persons: Issei Kato, Vishnu Varathan, Jerome Powell, reiteration, Varathan, Himani Sarkar Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, Wall, Mizuho Bank, Federal, UST, BHP, Reuters, Brent, Benchmark, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, China, Singapore, Australia, Korea, New Zealand, CHINA, Hong Kong
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